Real-Time Guidance | RAE (SH19)

Real-time Guidance for RAE (SH19)

This page provides plots and information for RAE (SH19). The left side of this page provides TCGP-generated plots of numerical guidance and other TCGP-curated data. The right side of this page provides external links to additional information and products. Most of the model guidance displayed in the plots come from modeling centers outside of NCAR, such as NOAA, other national numerical weather prediction centers, and universities. Click here for information about who contributes to TCGP. Your use of this page is governed by the UCAR Terms of Service and this site's disclaimer. To obtain help for any item on this page, click on the question mark beside that item.

Information as of the most recent model cycle ?

At 0600 UTC, 25 February 2025, RAE (SH19) was located in the South-West Pacific basin at 23.6°S and 178.5°W. The current intensity was 60 kt and the center was moving at 11 kt at a bearing of 170 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb.

Track guidance ?

Late cycle track guidance ?
Archive

Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) guidance ?

Late EPS track guidance plotted by model ?
Archive
Extra late EPS track guidance plotted by model ?
Archive

Intensity guidance ?

Late cycle intensity guidance ?
Archive

Probabilistic wind exceedance guidance ?

A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

*The data incorporated herein is generated from the use of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO) version 1.50, © MIT, used with permission. All Rights Reserved.

ATCF data files ?

ash192025.dat ?
track and intensity forecasts (a-deck)
bsh192025.dat ?
history file (b-deck)

Links to Official Warning Information

RSMC Nadi - Fiji Meteorological Service's Tropical Cyclone Centre

Warning Graphic and Advisory Information
Warning Threat Map

Additional Information

Products from the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center

JTWC Warning Graphic for RAE
JTWC Warning Text and Prognostic Discussion for RAE

Links to External Satellite-based Products

CIRA TC Real-time Page for RAE

Enhanced Infrared Imagery Loop (4 km Mercator)
Storm Relative Visible Imagery Loop (1 km Geostationary)
AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Operational)
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
Aircraft-based Surface Wind Analysis

UW-CIMSS TC Satellite Products for RAE

Satellite Consensus Intensity Estimates   More info ?
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) ?
ARCHER Center-finding Technique ?
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC) ?

Observations near RAE

   NDBC Ship and Buoy Obs within 300 km

   Mesonet Observations from NWS WRH Hazard Viewer