Real-Time Guidance | ERROL (SH29)

Real-time Guidance for ERROL (SH29)

This page provides plots and information for ERROL (SH29). The left side of this page provides TCGP-generated plots of numerical guidance and other TCGP-curated data. The right side of this page provides external links to additional information and products. Most of the model guidance displayed in the plots come from modeling centers outside of NCAR, such as NOAA, other national numerical weather prediction centers, and universities. Click here for information about who contributes to TCGP. Your use of this page is governed by the UCAR Terms of Service and this site's disclaimer. To obtain help for any item on this page, click on the question mark beside that item.

Information as of the most recent model cycle ?

At 0600 UTC, 16 April 2025, ERROL (SH29) was located in the South-East Indian basin at 14.2°S and 119.2°E. The current intensity was 120 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 260 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb.

Track guidance ?

Late cycle track guidance ?
Archive

Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) guidance ?

Late EPS track guidance plotted by model ?
Archive
Extra late EPS track guidance plotted by model ?
Archive

Intensity guidance ?

Late cycle intensity guidance ?
Archive

Probabilistic wind exceedance guidance ?

A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.
A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

*The data incorporated herein is generated from the use of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO) version 1.50, © MIT, used with permission. All Rights Reserved.

ATCF data files ?

ash292025.dat ?
track and intensity forecasts (a-deck)
bsh292025.dat ?
history file (b-deck)

Links to Official Warning Information

TCWC Perth, TCWC Darwin, and TCWC Brisbane - Australia Bureau of Meteorology

Additional Information

Products from the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center

JTWC Warning Graphic for ERROL
JTWC Warning Text and Prognostic Discussion for ERROL

Links to External Satellite-based Products

CIRA TC Real-time Page for ERROL

Enhanced Infrared Imagery Loop (4 km Mercator)
Storm Relative Visible Imagery Loop (1 km Geostationary)
AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Operational)
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
Aircraft-based Surface Wind Analysis

UW-CIMSS TC Satellite Products for ERROL

Satellite Consensus Intensity Estimates   More info ?
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) ?
ARCHER Center-finding Technique ?
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC) ?

Observations near ERROL

   NDBC Ship and Buoy Obs within 300 km

   Mesonet Observations from NWS WRH Hazard Viewer