Real-Time Guidance | NINETEEN (SH19)

Real-time Guidance for NINETEEN (SH19)

This page provides plots and information for NINETEEN (SH19). The left side of this page provides TCGP-generated plots of numerical guidance and other TCGP-curated data. The right side of this page provides external links to additional information and products. Most of the model guidance displayed in the plots come from modeling centers outside of NCAR, such as NOAA, other national numerical weather prediction centers, and universities. Click here for information about who contributes to TCGP. Your use of this page is governed by the UCAR Terms of Service and this site's disclaimer. To obtain help for any item on this page, click on the question mark beside that item.

Information as of the most recent model cycle ?

At 1800 UTC, 15 March 2022, NINETEEN (SH19) was located in the South-West Indian basin at 17.9°S and 38.4°E. The current intensity was -999 kt and the center was moving at -999 kt at a bearing of -999 degrees. The minimum central pressure was -999 mb.

Track guidance ?

Late cycle track guidance ?
Archive

Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) guidance ?

Late EPS track guidance plotted by model ?
Archive
Extra late EPS track guidance plotted by model ?
Archive

Intensity guidance ?

Late cycle intensity guidance ?
Archive

Probabilistic wind exceedance guidance ?

34-kt FHLO-ECMWF* ?
Archive
50-kt FHLO-ECMWF* ?
Archive
64-kt FHLO-ECMWF* ?
Archive
83-kt FHLO-ECMWF* ?
Archive
A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.
34-kt FHLO-GEFS* ?
Archive
50-kt FHLO-GEFS* ?
Archive
64-kt FHLO-GEFS* ?
Archive
83-kt FHLO-GEFS* ?
Archive
A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

*The data incorporated herein is generated from the use of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO) version 1.50, © MIT, used with permission. All Rights Reserved.

ATCF data files ?

ash192022.dat ?
track and intensity forecasts (a-deck)
bsh192022.dat ?
history file (b-deck)

Links to Official Warning Information

RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France

Warning Threat Map (in French)
Advisory Information (in French)

Links to External Satellite-based Products

CIRA TC Real-time Page for NINETEEN

Enhanced Infrared Imagery Loop (4 km Mercator)
Storm Relative Visible Imagery Loop (1 km Geostationary)
AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Operational)
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)
Aircraft-based Surface Wind Analysis

UW-CIMSS TC Satellite Products for NINETEEN

Satellite Consensus Intensity Estimates   More info ?
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) ?
ARCHER Center-finding Technique ?
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC) ?

Observations near NINETEEN

   NDBC Ship and Buoy Obs within 300 km

   Mesonet Observations from NWS WRH Hazard Viewer