* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/23/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 107 103 96 68 40 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 108 107 103 96 65 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 109 110 108 89 52 33 29 33 33 34 37 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 19 31 53 52 32 32 33 25 6 12 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 14 7 6 -6 3 3 -3 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 232 206 192 160 171 163 152 134 141 224 231 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.4 27.6 26.3 17.6 15.4 14.8 9.3 7.4 7.3 6.1 4.8 4.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 136 138 124 77 71 71 67 65 64 62 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 130 130 115 73 67 67 66 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -49.7 -48.3 -47.8 -48.3 -48.8 -49.2 -48.9 -48.5 -48.6 -47.5 -47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.8 4.5 3.1 2.1 2.4 3.6 1.9 -0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 53 49 47 48 56 62 70 78 83 76 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 43 42 50 56 62 49 34 24 24 21 14 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 142 190 257 279 263 259 213 146 110 119 116 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 145 180 138 119 84 59 59 55 16 -33 -25 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 48 26 -27 -49 -60 -1 12 -5 -14 17 6 11 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 810 823 666 391 129 63 20 -13 237 367 326 296 309 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.5 35.1 37.7 40.8 43.9 47.3 50.3 54.3 58.0 60.9 63.0 64.4 65.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.8 65.6 63.5 62.5 61.4 61.1 59.5 58.4 58.0 57.9 57.9 57.2 55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 31 31 32 24 16 18 20 16 12 9 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 24 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 19 CX,CY: 10/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 826 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -2. -7. -18. -31. -47. -61. -75. -83. -88. -92. -96. -97. -98. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -14. -21. -29. -29. -27. -24. -17. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -9. -12. -17. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 3. 8. 13. 4. -11. -26. -29. -35. -46. -54. -60. -57. -56. -53. -51. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -7. -14. -42. -70. -94.-106.-118.-131.-141.-148.-149.-151.-151.-155. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 32.5 67.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/23/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 422.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 136.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/23/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/23/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 19( 58) 2( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 108 107 103 96 65 37 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 108 104 97 66 38 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 102 95 64 36 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 93 62 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 60 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 108 99 93 90 82 54 47 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 IN 12HR 110 108 107 98 92 88 60 53 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23