* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/22/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 114 115 113 109 101 79 48 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 114 114 115 113 109 101 72 41 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 115 114 114 114 116 93 53 34 29 33 35 37 40 46 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 9 12 33 51 32 22 24 21 8 3 15 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 8 11 7 6 10 -3 11 7 0 -3 1 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 256 236 236 249 202 163 152 171 142 125 120 220 229 217 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.0 27.3 18.6 15.6 13.8 16.9 3.9 6.4 5.6 2.4 1.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 164 161 156 142 134 80 71 69 74 65 65 64 61 61 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 147 143 133 126 75 67 65 69 N/A 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -49.9 -47.8 -47.8 -48.1 -48.2 -47.0 -47.1 -47.6 -47.6 -47.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 4.1 3.5 2.9 2.6 4.3 2.5 0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 58 63 59 48 48 56 63 74 83 87 80 72 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 41 43 43 43 52 62 52 36 26 23 20 14 8 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 23 11 44 72 195 271 286 263 241 177 131 115 44 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 68 58 50 105 171 129 77 20 59 49 8 -31 -99 -59 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 26 33 41 39 -64 -94 -20 10 -13 -29 6 10 18 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 778 925 881 861 865 713 190 73 68 -203 133 299 294 199 131 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 28.1 29.4 30.9 32.4 37.4 43.4 47.1 49.6 52.8 56.7 60.4 63.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.0 70.3 69.6 68.4 67.2 62.9 61.1 61.6 60.6 59.9 59.5 59.0 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 18 25 30 25 16 14 18 19 17 13 9 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 32 29 22 15 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 1. -4. -16. -32. -47. -61. -69. -76. -82. -86. -87. -88. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -8. -13. -22. -22. -18. -14. -10. -7. -4. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 10. 23. 14. -7. -22. -27. -32. -41. -47. -51. -48. -47. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. -2. -6. -14. -36. -67. -90.-100.-108.-119.-127.-133.-135.-137. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 26.8 71.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/22/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 561.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 3.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/22/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/22/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 30( 66) 28( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 114 114 115 113 109 101 72 41 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 114 115 113 109 101 72 41 31 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 112 110 106 98 69 38 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 103 99 91 62 31 21 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 92 84 55 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 114 105 99 96 92 84 55 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 114 114 105 99 95 87 58 27 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS