* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/20/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 103 107 110 110 111 115 119 117 117 121 101 74 49 38 27 17 V (KT) LAND 100 103 107 110 110 111 115 119 117 117 121 101 54 33 27 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 105 109 112 114 115 118 117 110 110 103 59 35 30 35 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 12 11 20 14 19 11 20 30 62 53 23 16 15 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 1 5 4 7 1 8 8 -4 0 2 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 248 267 262 234 251 249 239 224 250 214 184 141 146 174 162 160 202 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.7 28.1 27.7 24.7 16.3 13.5 12.2 6.5 8.3 5.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 161 163 165 169 166 142 139 108 75 69 67 64 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 146 144 144 147 152 151 132 130 98 70 66 64 63 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -51.4 -51.6 -50.7 -51.1 -49.9 -47.6 -46.8 -46.7 -47.3 -48.1 -49.1 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.8 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.3 4.3 5.1 4.7 3.7 2.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 61 63 68 64 60 68 61 49 48 55 62 68 79 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 26 29 31 35 39 42 43 47 58 53 39 26 24 20 13 850 MB ENV VOR 34 25 31 33 38 53 47 24 66 175 290 289 261 225 175 135 195 200 MB DIV 80 65 97 69 23 94 93 85 94 150 115 91 72 51 55 35 -57 700-850 TADV 14 19 17 8 14 17 23 36 27 -25 -82 -63 -10 -23 -3 11 12 LAND (KM) 114 200 289 367 445 600 823 894 902 766 350 30 -65 -47 201 360 340 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.6 22.4 23.1 23.8 25.2 27.2 29.5 32.5 36.9 42.4 47.4 51.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.7 71.1 71.5 71.5 71.5 71.5 70.7 69.3 66.7 62.9 59.2 57.9 59.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 9 12 16 23 29 28 23 18 13 13 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 59 62 75 91 83 50 35 32 20 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -21. -27. -34. -42. -48. -53. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -3. -3. -6. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 21. 23. 28. 43. 35. 16. -3. -7. -10. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 10. 11. 15. 19. 17. 17. 21. 2. -26. -51. -62. -73. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.8 70.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/20/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.49 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 458.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.46 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 17.2% 11.1% 10.1% 7.6% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 19.7% 12.6% 12.3% 5.4% 7.1% 2.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 12.4% 6.3% 3.9% 4.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 12.0% 14.4% 9.2% 9.0% 4.5% 5.8% 0.9% 0.3% DTOPS: 32.0% 54.0% 47.0% 35.0% 10.0% 10.0% 21.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/20/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/20/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 29( 60) 29( 71) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 15 28( 39) 5( 42) 5( 45) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 103 107 110 110 111 115 119 117 117 121 101 54 33 27 16 DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 103 106 106 107 111 115 113 113 117 97 50 29 23 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 99 99 100 104 108 106 106 110 90 43 22 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 90 91 95 99 97 97 101 81 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 82 86 90 88 88 92 72 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 103 94 88 85 85 89 93 91 91 95 75 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 103 107 98 92 88 92 96 94 94 98 78 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS