* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/18/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 66 68 75 84 93 99 106 105 107 101 98 84 82 72 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 62 64 71 80 89 96 102 101 103 97 94 80 65 55 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 61 61 64 71 79 88 98 102 102 102 99 89 76 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 11 12 15 12 14 14 16 14 16 16 21 44 57 33 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 4 3 1 2 0 -1 2 3 4 -1 3 21 26 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 240 261 250 236 251 264 251 281 272 277 274 230 243 225 226 183 117 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 27.9 27.9 21.7 14.2 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 161 158 156 156 163 163 164 165 168 167 141 141 92 76 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 151 147 145 143 148 146 145 145 151 157 133 132 86 73 72 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.3 -50.6 -49.9 -50.5 -48.5 -46.4 -43.6 -43.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.6 1.0 0.4 2.0 4.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 9 8 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 54 56 61 62 63 65 66 60 54 53 45 36 58 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 22 21 24 28 32 36 41 42 44 43 46 45 51 49 850 MB ENV VOR 39 45 52 53 46 50 46 43 45 67 65 48 54 157 284 323 282 200 MB DIV 76 78 93 98 60 75 89 102 77 119 77 132 95 116 31 16 103 700-850 TADV 3 5 4 5 10 18 10 16 12 12 17 7 37 -58 43 -21 11 LAND (KM) 129 72 13 21 31 68 155 303 446 579 746 938 938 702 410 1 548 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.3 18.7 19.9 21.1 22.5 23.8 25.0 26.5 29.2 33.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.5 66.1 66.7 67.4 68.1 69.1 69.9 70.6 70.6 70.6 70.5 69.0 65.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 11 20 26 29 32 38 40 HEAT CONTENT 94 81 71 66 66 67 65 74 70 55 40 36 19 31 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -13. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 25. 26. 29. 25. 28. 24. 29. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 20. 29. 38. 44. 51. 50. 52. 46. 43. 29. 27. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.9 65.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/18/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.16 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.55 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.51 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 20.5% 11.1% 9.8% 7.4% 12.3% 13.1% 15.7% Logistic: 4.1% 13.2% 5.6% 3.8% 1.7% 5.8% 7.2% 5.1% Bayesian: 3.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.5% 0.1% Consensus: 4.7% 12.0% 5.8% 4.6% 3.1% 6.2% 7.3% 7.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 16.0% 10.0% 7.0% 2.0% 28.0% 52.0% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/18/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/18/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 62 62 64 71 80 89 96 102 101 103 97 94 80 65 55 18HR AGO 55 54 58 58 60 67 76 85 92 98 97 99 93 90 76 61 51 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 53 60 69 78 85 91 90 92 86 83 69 54 44 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 54 63 72 79 85 84 86 80 77 63 48 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT