* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/17/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 54 55 57 62 69 76 84 90 100 102 101 98 91 90 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 54 55 57 52 42 45 52 58 68 71 69 66 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 55 57 51 42 42 49 58 67 75 76 72 69 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 14 8 12 14 12 15 12 14 18 24 25 28 29 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -1 -1 3 2 3 2 1 1 1 -1 1 7 0 0 SHEAR DIR 245 257 271 254 228 250 243 268 253 278 259 278 255 244 222 215 201 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 162 163 163 162 162 161 164 164 164 164 164 167 170 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 156 154 155 154 149 149 147 147 145 144 143 144 146 148 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 6 700-500 MB RH 52 55 55 55 55 56 57 60 62 63 68 65 59 49 39 38 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 20 22 26 29 37 40 41 42 39 41 850 MB ENV VOR 15 22 29 31 38 36 39 45 55 48 67 82 115 126 92 28 -36 200 MB DIV 16 40 39 45 62 62 77 41 77 56 76 57 59 59 46 16 15 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -6 -4 -3 1 9 9 10 4 9 9 4 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 479 352 230 142 79 34 -15 -10 34 144 256 359 460 568 707 793 640 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.6 62.8 64.0 64.9 65.8 67.5 68.9 69.7 70.9 71.6 71.8 72.1 72.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 9 8 8 6 6 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 52 53 71 88 90 78 78 70 54 52 67 87 81 61 42 46 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 5. 10. 14. 23. 26. 26. 26. 20. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 19. 26. 34. 40. 50. 52. 51. 48. 41. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.5 61.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/17/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.47 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 15.1% 9.5% 8.6% 6.5% 10.5% 12.4% 16.5% Logistic: 2.5% 13.3% 7.3% 5.4% 2.3% 8.3% 6.0% 7.2% Bayesian: 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.3% Consensus: 2.9% 9.8% 5.8% 4.7% 2.9% 6.4% 6.7% 8.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/17/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/17/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 52 54 55 57 52 42 45 52 58 68 71 69 66 59 58 18HR AGO 50 49 50 52 53 55 50 40 43 50 56 66 69 67 64 57 56 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 51 46 36 39 46 52 62 65 63 60 53 52 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 43 38 28 31 38 44 54 57 55 52 45 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT