* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/16/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 44 43 47 50 53 59 63 70 77 83 88 91 87 89 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 44 43 47 50 53 47 36 45 52 59 63 66 63 64 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 42 42 42 43 44 39 32 38 44 50 56 60 63 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 11 11 13 15 13 17 14 18 17 23 21 21 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 2 2 4 -1 0 1 -1 2 3 1 1 3 2 6 5 SHEAR DIR 278 294 270 267 285 260 282 267 263 262 277 257 271 256 274 228 232 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 161 161 162 162 167 167 163 160 160 164 164 162 163 167 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 154 158 157 157 154 157 157 151 146 144 148 144 140 142 148 152 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 51 55 54 54 57 57 61 62 63 66 68 72 71 72 69 62 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 12 13 12 12 13 13 17 20 26 31 37 37 38 850 MB ENV VOR 2 13 13 16 28 30 32 38 42 49 43 61 76 99 106 107 95 200 MB DIV 1 2 8 42 37 34 47 70 51 95 84 74 67 78 73 39 15 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -7 -5 -7 -6 -6 -2 6 2 8 6 9 8 13 3 0 LAND (KM) 604 586 512 398 287 126 83 46 -41 -20 78 185 290 342 401 518 600 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.7 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.5 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.8 60.1 61.4 62.5 63.7 65.6 67.1 68.6 69.9 70.8 71.4 72.1 73.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 10 9 7 8 7 6 6 7 5 3 4 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 63 56 52 51 63 95 93 89 65 53 49 54 62 71 80 78 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -8. -3. 1. 8. 13. 19. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -2. 2. 5. 8. 14. 18. 25. 32. 38. 43. 46. 42. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.8 58.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/16/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 10.8% 7.3% 6.8% 5.2% 9.4% 11.0% 16.6% Logistic: 0.7% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.4% 3.0% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 4.5% 2.8% 2.4% 1.8% 3.6% 4.7% 7.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/16/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/16/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 43 44 43 47 50 53 47 36 45 52 59 63 66 63 64 18HR AGO 45 44 43 44 43 47 50 53 47 36 45 52 59 63 66 63 64 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 41 45 48 51 45 34 43 50 57 61 64 61 62 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 38 41 44 38 27 36 43 50 54 57 54 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT