* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/16/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 51 51 53 56 59 61 67 71 78 86 93 95 98 97 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 51 51 53 56 59 61 48 37 48 56 63 65 68 67 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 49 50 51 54 55 56 45 35 44 52 60 68 72 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 10 7 11 9 14 11 14 14 15 16 17 15 23 21 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 4 3 4 1 1 3 1 1 1 2 1 4 4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 270 283 297 286 276 294 273 281 266 275 268 290 286 284 272 266 258 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 163 164 165 165 169 166 164 166 168 168 165 165 167 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 155 160 161 158 156 160 156 150 151 153 151 145 146 150 149 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -51.7 -51.0 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 52 55 53 56 57 60 60 63 66 69 70 70 73 72 69 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 15 14 13 14 13 12 13 14 18 24 30 35 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -1 9 11 16 23 30 31 34 42 44 42 55 71 80 104 101 200 MB DIV 10 4 3 8 49 29 30 49 57 39 102 82 75 92 65 46 34 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -8 -6 -6 -3 1 0 6 3 13 8 12 9 8 4 LAND (KM) 672 620 597 522 406 200 122 103 46 -54 -7 100 201 275 308 402 527 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.5 58.8 60.1 61.3 62.5 64.6 66.1 67.7 69.1 70.0 70.6 71.4 72.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 8 7 6 6 7 6 4 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 67 66 62 52 45 80 94 97 88 68 66 54 52 56 62 84 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -3. 4. 12. 16. 21. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 21. 28. 36. 43. 46. 48. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.8 57.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/16/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.38 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.66 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.2% 9.0% 8.4% 6.4% 10.6% 12.3% 17.2% Logistic: 0.8% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 2.8% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 5.7% 3.4% 2.9% 2.2% 4.0% 5.0% 7.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/16/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/16/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 51 51 53 56 59 61 48 37 48 56 63 65 68 67 18HR AGO 50 49 49 51 51 53 56 59 61 48 37 48 56 63 65 68 67 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 48 50 53 56 58 45 34 45 53 60 62 65 64 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 42 45 48 50 37 26 37 45 52 54 57 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT