* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/15/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 52 53 54 56 59 61 67 70 76 80 87 90 91 90 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 52 53 54 56 59 61 67 70 76 80 87 90 91 90 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 52 53 53 53 55 57 60 62 65 69 75 80 83 84 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 15 14 16 13 20 16 18 16 19 17 22 22 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 2 4 3 -1 1 -1 0 -1 4 0 1 1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 274 281 287 286 300 289 308 288 297 270 280 275 280 274 275 265 245 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 154 158 164 165 164 164 159 161 162 166 166 166 166 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 147 149 151 154 159 158 154 152 147 147 147 149 147 145 144 141 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -51.3 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 51 54 51 53 55 55 58 59 61 60 64 66 66 69 70 68 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 17 16 16 15 16 16 15 17 19 21 24 30 35 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 1 1 7 -2 18 24 35 30 29 43 37 52 50 83 96 200 MB DIV 39 48 16 14 20 14 37 50 40 41 61 90 72 50 87 82 67 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -4 -4 -6 -4 -5 -1 4 5 12 9 13 12 12 15 7 LAND (KM) 907 816 740 681 647 407 206 68 27 32 46 112 213 322 433 541 635 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.5 19.6 20.7 21.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.8 56.0 57.3 58.5 59.8 62.2 64.2 65.8 67.0 68.0 68.9 69.8 70.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 39 51 61 64 66 50 75 84 83 75 80 75 68 77 79 67 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -4. -3. -1. 3. 10. 14. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 17. 20. 26. 30. 37. 40. 41. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.3 54.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/15/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.14 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.4% 9.2% 8.6% 6.4% 10.2% 11.2% 14.1% Logistic: 1.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 2.3% 3.4% 6.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 6.1% 3.5% 3.1% 2.2% 4.3% 5.0% 6.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/15/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/15/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 52 52 53 54 56 59 61 67 70 76 80 87 90 91 90 18HR AGO 50 49 50 50 51 52 54 57 59 65 68 74 78 85 88 89 88 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 47 48 50 53 55 61 64 70 74 81 84 85 84 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 42 44 47 49 55 58 64 68 75 78 79 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT