* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL072022 09/15/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 46 46 50 50 56 58 64 70 77 81 83 88 89 87 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 46 46 50 50 56 58 64 60 67 71 73 78 79 77 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 46 47 48 50 53 51 58 63 68 73 75 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 15 16 16 16 21 14 19 15 13 13 20 20 19 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 1 4 0 -2 1 -3 0 1 2 4 4 5 3 2 SHEAR DIR 261 269 278 278 287 297 307 288 285 264 273 253 273 259 270 256 260 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 149 151 156 161 166 165 165 158 162 167 168 165 166 167 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 146 145 147 152 157 160 156 154 146 149 153 152 146 145 148 145 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 50 51 53 51 54 54 55 57 59 58 56 59 58 61 61 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 16 17 15 17 16 18 20 23 26 27 34 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 5 0 4 8 7 37 28 44 33 54 37 55 59 79 66 200 MB DIV 29 35 40 25 18 23 22 40 53 50 51 56 42 67 41 48 34 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -7 -5 -6 -6 -2 -2 7 4 8 7 10 8 8 4 1 LAND (KM) 1018 918 829 759 708 485 244 70 19 0 5 63 200 311 398 526 668 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.7 16.8 16.8 17.1 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.4 19.2 20.3 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.7 55.0 56.3 57.5 58.8 61.3 63.7 65.5 67.1 68.4 69.3 70.2 71.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 8 7 6 7 8 6 5 5 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 28 37 47 58 63 61 67 81 82 79 82 75 62 70 78 73 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -3. -2. -5. -3. -0. 3. 5. 6. 14. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 5. 11. 13. 19. 25. 32. 36. 38. 43. 44. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.6 53.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 FIONA 09/15/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 8.8% 6.3% 6.2% 4.5% 8.1% 8.7% 12.5% Logistic: 0.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 1.6% 2.4% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.2% 3.6% 2.4% 2.2% 1.6% 3.3% 3.7% 5.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 FIONA 09/15/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 FIONA 09/15/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 46 46 50 50 56 58 64 60 67 71 73 78 79 77 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 45 49 49 55 57 63 59 66 70 72 77 78 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 46 46 52 54 60 56 63 67 69 74 75 73 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 39 39 45 47 53 49 56 60 62 67 68 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT