* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072022 09/14/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 38 41 47 47 48 50 51 56 59 61 64 65 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 38 41 47 47 47 48 36 31 29 28 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 36 36 37 37 36 36 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 15 14 15 18 17 19 20 24 19 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 1 2 0 3 -3 0 -2 -1 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 248 250 264 267 275 288 281 279 260 264 248 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.4 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 146 149 151 160 167 166 163 163 163 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 136 141 146 148 157 164 160 154 152 153 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 52 50 49 49 50 50 54 58 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 14 12 11 12 11 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 9 4 4 1 7 13 14 38 39 40 42 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 39 30 22 35 10 32 1 19 21 35 75 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -3 -6 -8 -2 -4 0 0 3 0 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1294 1241 1140 1039 945 785 564 297 46 32 8 -44 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.1 51.3 52.5 53.7 54.9 57.7 60.5 63.1 65.6 67.5 69.0 70.6 72.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 8 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 27 23 28 36 57 67 59 76 79 84 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. 42. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -7. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 8. 11. 17. 17. 18. 20. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 50.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072022 SEVEN 09/14/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.13 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 9.0% 6.5% 6.1% 4.2% 7.5% 7.9% 11.5% Logistic: 2.7% 9.3% 5.4% 5.8% 1.9% 10.8% 9.0% 11.2% Bayesian: 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 3.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 6.3% 4.1% 4.0% 2.0% 6.2% 6.7% 7.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072022 SEVEN 09/14/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072022 SEVEN 09/14/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 35 35 38 41 47 47 47 48 36 31 29 28 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 32 35 38 44 44 44 45 33 28 26 25 25 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 30 33 39 39 39 40 28 23 21 20 20 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 26 32 32 32 33 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT