* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 08/12/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 30 31 36 41 42 35 31 25 29 38 47 58 75 77 71 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 5 0 -7 -17 -6 -5 3 2 0 0 2 -9 -13 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 276 268 263 262 271 290 293 292 292 252 245 234 211 204 211 201 198 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.7 27.1 27.3 26.7 25.4 25.5 24.1 21.6 20.7 20.0 19.5 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 132 127 123 126 131 133 129 116 118 105 80 70 61 61 61 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 3 2 3 3 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 69 65 61 57 55 56 55 60 66 65 63 57 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 11 10 11 12 11 10 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -23 -15 -13 -13 -3 13 31 46 42 27 3 -17 -37 -44 -2 6 200 MB DIV 81 110 121 90 63 43 52 10 27 47 83 119 115 55 7 11 26 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 1 1 -6 -1 0 5 6 10 14 19 15 12 -9 -36 LAND (KM) 1994 1995 1986 1968 1947 1926 1943 1982 2024 2022 1935 1711 1409 1126 902 727 518 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.0 18.9 18.5 18.3 18.6 19.7 21.3 23.6 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.0 131.4 131.6 131.6 131.5 131.2 131.1 131.4 132.1 132.8 133.4 133.0 132.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 5 7 11 13 17 15 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 8 3 2 4 6 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 6. 2. -2. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -6. -12. -16. -19. -19. -18. -15. -17. -27. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -22. -29. -43. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.6 131.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 08/12/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.64 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.88 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -25.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.13 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 08/12/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##