* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 08/12/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 22 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 33 30 33 38 37 43 34 33 27 33 36 30 36 45 51 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 6 5 0 -10 -15 -6 -4 3 3 0 5 8 10 5 3 SHEAR DIR 279 278 267 260 264 276 298 284 291 267 258 249 281 241 216 204 194 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.0 26.2 25.8 25.7 26.2 26.6 26.5 25.5 25.3 25.3 23.7 20.9 19.0 17.8 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 132 123 118 116 121 125 125 116 115 116 102 75 65 64 64 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 73 70 69 67 62 60 56 57 57 60 61 66 67 59 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 8 9 9 10 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -3 -11 -6 -14 -18 -6 6 21 37 13 -22 -67 -78 -49 -22 25 200 MB DIV 76 84 103 106 73 41 28 27 10 21 44 33 69 52 56 49 45 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 1 1 -3 -3 0 1 4 7 16 14 5 -13 -23 -17 LAND (KM) 1975 1976 1963 1949 1931 1901 1908 1935 1961 1976 1947 1782 1504 1044 553 200 -86 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.4 19.6 19.2 18.9 18.9 19.4 20.4 22.1 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.1 131.4 131.6 131.6 131.4 131.2 131.3 131.6 132.1 132.4 132.1 130.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 1 2 5 7 10 16 23 21 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 6 1 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -0. 1. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -12. -16. -19. -20. -18. -16. -17. -23. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 2. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -15. -19. -22. -22. -22. -22. -25. -30. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.4 130.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 08/12/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.63 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.05 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.93 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -27.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.16 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 08/12/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##