* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 08/12/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 38 39 36 38 42 43 36 32 33 27 23 16 23 38 41 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 6 2 -8 -13 -9 -7 -4 4 0 2 0 0 10 7 SHEAR DIR 277 276 276 268 261 279 295 295 295 301 266 245 273 259 244 232 222 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.2 25.5 25.4 25.9 26.5 26.9 26.3 25.5 25.5 25.2 23.5 21.4 19.9 18.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 136 124 115 112 119 125 129 123 116 117 114 99 79 65 65 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.5 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 72 70 68 65 62 58 57 56 56 57 61 62 67 67 62 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 9 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -1 -5 -19 -14 -19 -6 7 12 31 33 11 -6 -55 -79 -57 -1 200 MB DIV 79 86 107 112 99 43 44 9 17 5 33 17 29 62 64 59 36 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 4 4 0 -7 -1 0 0 4 6 8 10 21 -17 -49 LAND (KM) 1955 1955 1960 1949 1937 1926 1931 1970 2015 2053 2063 2028 1917 1714 1335 825 336 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.6 19.8 19.4 18.9 18.6 18.7 19.3 20.4 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.1 130.7 131.3 131.6 131.8 131.8 131.6 131.7 132.0 132.5 133.0 133.6 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 6 4 1 3 2 2 3 5 7 8 14 21 24 22 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 1 0 0 0 3 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. -6. -13. -18. -21. -21. -20. -18. -19. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -17. -24. -27. -29. -29. -27. -28. -33. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.1 130.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 08/12/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.63 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.05 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.90 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -21.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.08 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 08/12/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##