* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 08/12/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 28 28 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 28 28 26 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 22 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 38 41 42 38 38 41 46 34 29 25 32 34 26 14 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 3 -1 -9 -13 -7 -1 3 0 -4 0 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 280 279 275 269 265 266 281 296 291 293 274 250 240 233 245 260 287 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 26.6 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.6 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.0 25.5 24.8 24.0 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 129 116 112 112 113 116 119 122 124 121 116 110 102 89 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 67 65 61 56 56 54 53 55 60 60 59 58 57 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 6 6 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -2 2 1 13 3 -28 -28 -24 -9 -3 25 37 36 19 -7 -20 -15 200 MB DIV 74 102 95 104 107 57 77 60 26 -9 36 58 35 46 14 9 7 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -1 0 2 4 -1 -3 -4 -4 2 2 0 0 4 11 11 LAND (KM) 1967 1981 1984 1985 1988 1985 1976 2013 2068 2113 2149 2137 2070 1996 1927 1936 1800 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 18.0 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.2 19.7 19.2 18.9 18.9 19.3 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.8 130.5 131.2 131.8 132.3 132.7 132.6 132.7 133.0 133.3 133.7 134.4 135.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 6 2 2 2 3 2 3 4 4 5 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -6. -13. -18. -21. -22. -23. -22. -23. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. -0. -0. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. -18. -23. -24. -25. -25. -28. -32. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 129.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 08/12/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.65 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.92 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -33.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.24 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 08/12/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##