* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 08/11/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 30 29 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 30 29 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 26 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 28 37 41 43 43 40 44 40 31 25 32 21 14 13 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 1 -1 -4 -10 -11 -2 5 2 0 8 0 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 290 282 275 268 263 256 277 286 294 288 286 270 268 256 226 225 240 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.6 26.5 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.5 26.0 26.5 26.7 26.3 25.6 25.3 24.8 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 140 128 113 111 114 114 120 125 128 124 117 114 109 107 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 69 69 69 67 63 59 56 56 54 53 55 57 57 59 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -5 -1 5 5 -10 -28 -26 -12 -1 21 41 38 49 41 44 16 200 MB DIV 44 81 110 107 114 100 58 38 24 0 18 28 56 46 26 22 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 3 6 2 -3 -2 -6 -3 4 3 -4 2 4 4 LAND (KM) 1974 1983 1989 2008 2003 1992 1985 2025 2066 2113 2166 2142 2034 1926 1809 1725 1690 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.8 19.9 20.2 19.8 19.4 18.9 18.6 18.7 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.2 129.9 130.6 131.4 132.0 132.6 132.7 132.9 133.1 133.3 133.7 134.4 135.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 4 0 3 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 10 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. -0. -6. -13. -19. -21. -22. -22. -20. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -14. -17. -19. -19. -18. -20. -23. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 129.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 08/11/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.70 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.93 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.55 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 08/11/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##