* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 09/20/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 39 47 55 64 73 78 76 74 72 69 64 59 53 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 39 47 55 64 73 78 76 74 72 69 64 59 53 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 34 39 44 50 54 55 53 52 51 48 42 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 15 14 14 7 8 10 9 8 5 16 21 23 32 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 2 1 3 0 1 4 9 8 5 -1 0 2 2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 358 355 6 2 7 5 349 342 336 319 255 243 183 221 233 224 220 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.6 28.5 28.6 28.0 28.1 27.2 26.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 160 160 161 158 158 157 162 150 150 144 144 135 130 119 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -51.7 -51.0 -51.7 -51.0 -51.2 -50.4 -50.9 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 74 76 76 75 74 71 69 66 66 63 61 59 60 54 50 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 15 17 17 19 20 23 25 27 26 24 21 20 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 18 36 39 40 43 45 35 34 36 44 52 46 53 41 28 24 -2 200 MB DIV 125 133 118 130 121 74 110 128 115 51 25 26 19 16 10 23 3 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -9 -8 -4 0 2 6 3 3 2 -2 1 5 6 4 LAND (KM) 1925 1993 2049 2082 2103 2116 2085 2038 1920 1745 1507 1295 1091 961 876 803 734 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.6 12.0 13.1 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.3 16.3 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.5 125.3 126.1 126.8 128.1 128.7 128.4 127.0 124.8 122.4 120.6 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 3 4 9 12 12 9 9 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 16 16 15 13 16 17 16 22 16 12 10 10 3 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 32. 35. 38. 40. 41. 42. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 13. 17. 20. 17. 14. 9. 7. 4. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 22. 30. 39. 48. 53. 51. 49. 47. 44. 39. 34. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 123.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 09/20/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.88 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.78 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.48 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.2% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.6% 22.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 22.9% 9.3% 5.6% 1.1% 4.5% 5.2% 2.4% Bayesian: 3.2% 4.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 16.7% 9.9% 2.0% 0.4% 8.4% 9.6% 0.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 8.0% SDCON: 1.7% 11.3% 5.9% 1.0% 0.2% 5.2% 5.8% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 09/20/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##