* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 09/19/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 34 38 44 53 62 73 80 82 82 79 75 68 62 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 34 38 44 53 62 73 80 82 82 79 75 68 62 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 41 48 56 62 63 63 59 52 44 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 12 9 9 15 14 15 6 8 8 11 10 7 21 25 35 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 4 2 2 4 -1 0 4 4 0 4 6 6 6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 11 3 1 357 358 2 358 48 359 329 291 272 225 218 228 228 233 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.7 28.5 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 26.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 156 157 159 160 160 155 154 162 150 145 145 144 141 132 126 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -49.9 -50.2 -50.3 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 77 77 75 74 70 66 61 62 60 57 59 58 51 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 13 15 15 16 17 19 19 23 26 27 27 25 24 19 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 15 25 42 44 43 53 41 38 45 51 57 55 55 51 37 14 6 200 MB DIV 71 125 134 112 125 99 90 99 133 91 31 14 3 21 1 6 23 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -8 -7 -2 0 4 7 5 4 0 2 5 14 13 LAND (KM) 1858 1943 2005 2053 2085 2095 2052 1985 1904 1762 1552 1330 1145 967 841 738 649 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.3 12.4 13.7 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.3 16.3 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.5 124.3 125.0 125.8 127.1 127.9 127.9 127.0 125.2 123.0 121.1 120.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 7 8 9 6 3 7 10 11 9 8 8 8 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 23 22 18 14 14 15 16 14 25 16 9 10 10 6 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 9. 16. 23. 28. 32. 36. 38. 41. 42. 42. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 22. 20. 17. 13. 8. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 13. 19. 28. 37. 48. 55. 57. 57. 54. 50. 43. 37. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 122.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 09/19/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.51 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.0% 16.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 18.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 16.9% 5.6% 3.0% 0.6% 3.0% 4.9% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 13.2% 7.5% 1.0% 0.2% 7.5% 8.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.9% 11.6% 5.7% 1.0% 0.6% 5.2% 5.5% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 09/19/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##