* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 09/19/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 42 48 57 63 65 69 71 71 70 69 69 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 42 48 57 63 65 69 71 71 70 69 69 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 36 40 44 48 52 55 57 59 60 60 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 13 8 9 14 18 11 12 15 14 7 9 9 10 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 1 1 4 -1 1 3 6 2 3 -2 3 2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 8 12 359 349 2 353 353 359 343 341 335 282 286 158 199 197 181 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 157 156 157 160 161 159 157 160 162 159 158 154 152 150 143 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 -52.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.3 -50.4 -50.6 -50.0 -50.3 -50.1 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 75 76 73 72 69 65 66 65 65 65 69 66 62 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 14 16 16 19 20 20 22 22 21 20 17 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 22 35 41 45 39 32 24 27 40 38 42 46 79 120 152 200 MB DIV 43 72 99 126 112 133 72 108 95 119 47 74 36 32 43 17 6 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -8 -6 -1 2 6 6 5 1 -2 2 10 11 LAND (KM) 1767 1850 1927 1990 2045 2080 2082 2042 1988 1910 1746 1548 1305 1082 927 869 869 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.9 13.0 13.9 14.2 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.5 123.4 124.2 125.0 126.4 127.5 128.0 127.6 126.3 124.1 121.4 119.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 7 8 7 3 4 9 13 13 11 9 6 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 30 22 23 18 15 15 15 15 17 25 17 24 23 17 16 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 9. 17. 24. 28. 33. 37. 41. 45. 47. 48. 49. 51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 12. 16. 16. 17. 16. 14. 11. 8. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 17. 23. 32. 38. 40. 44. 46. 46. 45. 44. 44. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 121.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 09/19/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 0.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 8.2% 2.4% 1.1% 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 0.2% 8.1% 5.2% 0.4% 0.1% 6.4% 6.2% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 7.0% SDCON: 0.1% 7.5% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 09/19/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##