* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 09/19/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 36 41 48 52 57 62 67 68 74 73 71 70 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 36 41 48 52 57 62 67 68 74 73 71 70 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 29 30 33 37 42 47 54 61 67 71 76 81 85 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 20 12 10 14 12 16 9 11 7 11 7 13 22 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 2 2 1 -2 -1 3 4 3 1 -2 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 354 4 11 359 349 356 347 347 339 341 315 349 52 98 120 105 95 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 161 157 160 162 160 159 162 163 163 163 159 154 155 154 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 72 73 71 71 68 69 66 67 66 69 67 71 70 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 10 11 13 14 16 17 19 21 22 23 24 22 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -4 4 15 19 32 45 53 39 44 36 45 42 35 33 151 144 129 200 MB DIV 38 49 74 79 86 107 121 80 84 97 97 52 23 47 76 104 83 700-850 TADV -6 -1 0 0 -2 -6 -9 -1 0 1 2 5 4 -1 3 15 7 LAND (KM) 1580 1635 1717 1802 1881 1990 2064 2078 2070 2042 1934 1759 1488 1220 1027 974 962 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.8 12.0 12.6 13.3 13.4 13.0 12.5 12.5 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.6 121.6 122.5 123.5 125.3 126.9 127.8 127.8 127.0 125.1 122.6 119.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 3 2 7 11 14 14 12 7 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 25 26 23 18 15 15 15 16 17 21 24 21 22 30 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 800 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 17. 24. 28. 32. 37. 42. 46. 50. 51. 53. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. -5. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 19. 18. 15. 12. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 16. 23. 27. 32. 37. 42. 43. 49. 48. 46. 45. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 119.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 09/19/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.21 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 7.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 2.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 9.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.5% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 09/19/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##