* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 09/19/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 37 44 52 58 62 67 71 71 72 71 71 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 37 44 52 58 62 67 71 71 72 71 71 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 20 20 21 23 25 27 30 33 34 36 39 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 25 20 14 10 9 13 8 3 5 5 5 14 20 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 2 2 4 -1 -2 2 9 8 7 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 346 352 3 8 359 338 330 320 347 271 238 323 129 92 116 125 105 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.1 28.8 29.4 29.3 28.8 29.0 29.2 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 159 160 160 158 161 161 153 149 157 157 152 154 156 151 151 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -50.7 -49.8 -50.1 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 72 72 72 72 67 63 62 61 60 61 63 62 61 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 13 16 16 17 19 22 24 24 23 24 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -1 5 12 14 27 32 29 18 27 38 42 36 37 48 125 168 200 MB DIV 26 28 36 61 68 51 94 67 88 92 114 47 37 23 44 5 18 700-850 TADV -3 -4 0 0 0 -2 -6 -3 0 2 5 7 6 2 -4 1 7 LAND (KM) 1522 1566 1628 1693 1750 1855 1858 1854 1829 1795 1763 1675 1541 1392 1213 1074 1004 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.6 11.8 12.8 14.0 15.0 15.4 15.2 14.9 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.1 119.9 120.7 121.5 123.1 124.4 125.6 126.3 126.3 125.6 124.2 122.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 4 2 6 8 9 9 8 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 26 18 18 21 24 20 22 22 15 14 20 25 17 18 19 23 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 24. 30. 33. 36. 40. 43. 46. 48. 50. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 20. 18. 16. 16. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 17. 24. 32. 38. 42. 47. 51. 51. 52. 51. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.8 118.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 09/19/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.12 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -4.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 09/19/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##