* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 09/18/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 29 37 46 53 57 61 64 66 67 68 67 68 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 29 37 46 53 57 61 64 66 67 68 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 25 27 28 30 31 31 31 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 22 22 17 5 9 12 15 12 12 15 13 4 9 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 -3 -2 0 3 0 4 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 352 352 350 2 10 320 313 317 328 299 285 278 286 274 116 154 165 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.6 28.5 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 160 160 159 156 162 161 159 156 149 149 154 149 146 142 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 75 74 74 70 67 62 61 61 60 58 58 60 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 12 13 14 15 16 18 20 20 20 19 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -7 1 6 12 24 33 38 22 18 16 36 36 45 36 43 50 200 MB DIV 57 29 26 32 52 47 64 85 77 95 91 98 41 31 0 18 8 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 0 0 0 -3 -8 -1 2 4 5 2 2 -1 0 4 LAND (KM) 1529 1580 1633 1705 1761 1852 1892 1857 1792 1723 1645 1537 1397 1244 1128 1052 1071 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.2 10.9 10.8 10.9 11.6 12.9 14.3 15.0 15.2 15.2 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.6 119.3 120.0 120.7 122.1 123.4 124.5 125.1 124.9 124.1 122.7 121.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 3 6 7 8 7 5 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 29 22 19 16 22 28 22 22 24 28 26 16 10 18 14 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 7. 17. 25. 32. 35. 38. 42. 45. 47. 48. 50. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 14. 15. 14. 12. 10. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 17. 26. 33. 37. 41. 44. 46. 47. 49. 47. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.4 117.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 09/18/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.18 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -33.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.24 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 2.7% 8.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% Consensus: 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 1.0% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 09/18/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##