* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982026 09/18/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 22 28 38 47 55 58 61 64 67 70 74 76 78 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 22 28 38 47 55 58 61 64 67 70 74 76 78 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 41 43 48 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 19 20 20 14 10 13 14 12 15 13 13 6 5 13 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 0 4 2 0 1 -2 -2 -2 2 4 5 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 344 355 354 352 5 26 19 348 334 317 316 328 338 49 64 87 77 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 159 162 160 157 156 161 160 157 160 163 162 163 161 160 160 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 75 78 77 75 70 69 66 65 66 68 66 65 70 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 11 13 14 15 15 17 17 18 17 15 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -3 7 15 22 48 48 37 23 22 21 19 7 11 47 110 200 MB DIV 43 52 29 29 38 67 83 128 117 95 83 59 30 -5 0 36 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -4 -1 0 -4 -9 -4 0 0 3 3 5 4 4 7 LAND (KM) 1479 1524 1587 1667 1758 1896 1991 2027 2033 2004 1963 1879 1762 1571 1390 1280 1180 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.6 11.4 11.4 12.0 12.9 13.5 13.4 13.0 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.0 119.0 119.8 120.7 121.6 123.2 124.6 125.8 126.8 127.0 126.4 124.9 122.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 9 9 7 7 7 5 1 5 9 11 13 12 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 30 22 20 22 24 21 21 18 15 16 16 21 20 22 31 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 17. 25. 32. 36. 39. 43. 48. 52. 55. 58. 62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 8. 18. 27. 35. 38. 41. 44. 47. 50. 54. 56. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.0 118.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982026 INVEST 09/18/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.94 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.18 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -31.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.21 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 3.2% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982026 INVEST 09/18/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##