* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 09/13/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 42 45 47 45 44 45 46 49 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 42 45 47 45 44 45 46 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 27 27 27 26 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 13 14 12 15 11 11 0 8 11 12 9 9 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 0 2 1 4 0 4 2 7 4 0 -3 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 311 302 283 283 285 285 289 300 326 339 223 218 245 236 261 254 250 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.5 29.2 27.6 28.5 28.8 28.0 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 153 151 148 156 139 149 151 142 145 142 143 145 144 140 143 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 69 69 67 65 63 63 63 64 63 65 65 66 67 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 14 12 11 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -22 -13 0 9 34 47 71 85 92 93 69 60 48 51 45 46 200 MB DIV 40 49 53 58 42 39 30 64 40 39 44 60 47 35 31 26 19 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -5 -3 0 0 2 4 0 2 -3 2 0 LAND (KM) 889 935 982 1053 1103 1221 1352 1498 1647 1730 1796 1827 1889 1979 2123 2149 1874 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.0 16.9 16.6 16.4 16.2 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.6 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.8 117.3 117.9 118.5 119.9 121.5 123.2 124.9 126.2 127.2 128.0 129.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 7 5 5 4 6 8 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 22 27 17 18 5 11 18 8 10 10 15 19 21 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 20. 19. 20. 21. 24. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.4 116.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 09/13/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.95 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -15.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 4.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 2.7% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 09/13/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##