* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 09/13/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 29 31 33 36 40 42 43 44 47 51 54 61 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 29 31 33 36 40 42 43 44 47 51 54 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 28 31 36 42 49 59 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 12 14 17 16 15 14 11 3 5 6 6 5 8 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 2 0 -1 -5 -3 -2 1 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 319 308 293 286 303 308 279 297 323 4 193 218 215 134 139 60 76 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.4 29.0 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 152 150 150 148 148 155 150 154 155 156 156 156 156 154 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 74 71 71 70 67 66 64 64 62 63 64 69 70 72 73 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 14 13 13 13 14 14 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -29 -19 -12 -5 19 45 59 96 109 128 108 111 112 109 117 122 200 MB DIV 28 37 49 39 39 29 44 49 50 47 45 42 71 70 87 89 84 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -3 -3 -5 -5 -4 -1 -1 1 -1 3 0 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 852 889 936 998 1061 1187 1330 1505 1695 1853 1989 2121 2231 2334 2354 2318 2277 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.2 17.0 16.6 16.3 15.9 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.3 116.9 117.4 118.0 119.4 121.1 123.0 125.1 127.1 128.8 130.4 131.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 7 7 9 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 5 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 16 23 21 14 9 13 18 14 22 29 30 29 26 25 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 5. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 19. 22. 26. 29. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.4 115.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 09/13/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 3.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 09/13/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##