* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 09/13/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 32 36 40 46 48 50 49 49 49 48 47 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 32 36 40 46 48 50 49 49 49 48 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 23 22 22 23 23 24 25 26 27 27 28 29 30 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 12 11 13 13 10 13 14 8 7 11 12 16 17 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 -3 1 1 4 3 -1 -1 2 1 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 326 322 310 289 286 312 277 283 297 272 228 246 210 218 223 238 250 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.4 28.7 28.2 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.8 25.8 25.6 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 148 149 152 147 150 145 138 140 140 137 131 130 120 118 121 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 71 70 69 65 65 64 64 57 54 52 51 51 53 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 14 16 16 18 19 20 20 19 20 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -37 -28 -14 -8 4 44 55 76 73 79 85 81 67 42 30 37 200 MB DIV 35 31 54 70 45 37 54 53 43 57 50 10 22 19 19 -6 5 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 1 -1 5 7 6 5 10 LAND (KM) 814 843 875 920 966 1103 1219 1298 1399 1454 1520 1626 1784 1867 1876 1880 1964 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 8 9 10 10 8 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 19 18 20 15 14 9 2 6 7 7 5 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 12. 13. 14. 13. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 21. 23. 25. 24. 24. 24. 23. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.2 114.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 09/13/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -9.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 5.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 3.6% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 09/13/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##