* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 09/12/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 27 30 35 40 48 51 53 53 52 50 51 50 47 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 27 30 35 40 48 51 53 53 52 50 51 50 47 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 21 21 21 21 22 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 17 15 11 16 12 12 12 11 5 10 13 16 20 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 4 4 5 -1 3 0 0 -1 6 4 SHEAR DIR 327 325 332 324 306 309 302 296 284 260 264 226 220 215 222 228 241 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 29.0 28.5 28.7 27.9 27.4 27.5 27.4 26.8 26.9 25.5 25.2 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 148 148 153 148 150 142 138 139 138 132 132 117 115 109 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.9 -50.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 76 72 70 66 65 64 61 56 50 44 44 43 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 17 17 20 21 21 21 20 18 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -46 -37 -27 -14 1 17 54 69 81 80 98 84 69 37 42 33 200 MB DIV 50 37 30 36 48 38 57 35 38 69 40 -8 11 2 23 3 11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -2 0 2 1 -2 2 6 6 8 9 LAND (KM) 814 824 836 863 891 1012 1137 1212 1297 1372 1419 1500 1639 1725 1716 1743 1867 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 4 4 5 7 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 18 17 19 26 16 14 6 4 8 9 5 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 11 CX,CY: -1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 15. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. 25. 26. 25. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 114.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 09/12/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.41 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -14.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 15.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 5.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 09/12/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##