* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 09/12/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 41 47 53 58 64 65 66 68 67 66 66 68 66 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 41 47 53 58 64 65 66 68 67 66 66 68 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 37 38 40 41 42 42 42 42 42 42 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 17 17 15 11 10 11 13 11 9 6 11 11 11 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 0 -3 4 3 3 0 1 -1 2 3 9 6 SHEAR DIR 349 334 332 337 324 303 307 283 280 238 251 201 207 194 218 221 230 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.8 29.1 27.9 27.5 27.6 27.6 26.8 27.2 25.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 153 152 151 154 154 151 154 143 139 140 140 132 136 121 113 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -51.2 -50.6 -50.9 -50.2 -50.8 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 81 79 80 78 78 76 72 71 70 66 64 60 58 56 53 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 15 16 18 21 22 23 24 23 22 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -61 -52 -41 -25 -2 5 36 54 70 75 92 81 75 55 42 27 200 MB DIV 80 60 58 39 41 79 56 60 49 77 66 29 21 31 5 9 27 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 0 -2 -4 -3 0 3 2 3 6 10 11 12 13 LAND (KM) 934 912 891 914 938 1025 1128 1229 1295 1352 1426 1481 1551 1621 1719 1776 1770 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 24 24 22 23 25 18 19 6 5 6 10 4 8 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 17. 17. 18. 15. 13. 11. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 17. 23. 28. 34. 35. 36. 38. 37. 36. 36. 38. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 114.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 09/12/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.37 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -34.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.26 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 18.9% 14.8% 11.9% 0.0% 18.7% 17.9% 16.4% Logistic: 0.7% 5.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.5% 3.5% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% Consensus: 3.2% 8.8% 5.5% 4.2% 0.1% 6.7% 7.2% 6.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 8.0% SDCON: 2.1% 9.4% 4.7% 2.6% 0.5% 5.3% 5.6% 7.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 09/12/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##