* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 09/12/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 43 49 54 59 63 69 69 73 74 74 74 75 73 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 43 49 54 59 63 69 69 73 74 74 74 75 73 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 39 41 45 48 50 53 56 58 60 61 61 60 57 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 12 14 15 12 13 12 12 11 11 6 8 7 6 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 -2 3 1 -1 0 1 2 8 2 4 SHEAR DIR 1 6 359 347 356 328 312 301 291 275 247 215 190 200 162 194 210 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.5 28.6 27.8 27.5 26.8 26.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 154 152 152 156 161 160 161 157 148 149 141 139 131 125 109 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 82 81 79 80 77 76 77 74 72 70 66 64 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 14 16 17 19 22 23 26 26 26 26 25 24 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -72 -67 -62 -54 -31 -1 15 41 56 71 69 70 33 22 7 17 200 MB DIV 88 87 74 54 53 64 87 67 98 75 103 102 99 69 6 14 27 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 2 0 5 5 5 8 8 9 LAND (KM) 1054 1018 1010 1008 1026 1093 1192 1284 1361 1442 1486 1529 1520 1465 1409 1414 1475 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.0 14.4 14.1 14.2 14.6 15.2 15.9 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.7 115.1 115.4 115.7 116.2 116.9 117.9 119.1 120.6 122.0 123.3 124.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 3 2 4 5 5 7 8 7 7 8 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 21 21 21 29 31 32 18 15 18 9 6 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 19. 21. 19. 17. 16. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 19. 24. 29. 33. 39. 39. 43. 44. 44. 45. 45. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 114.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 09/12/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -30.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.19 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 20.4% 16.8% 13.7% 0.0% 20.0% 18.6% 20.3% Logistic: 1.5% 8.5% 2.1% 1.3% 0.3% 3.3% 14.3% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 7.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% Consensus: 4.3% 12.1% 6.9% 5.2% 0.2% 7.8% 11.0% 11.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 10.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 6.0% 19.0% SDCON: 2.6% 11.0% 5.9% 3.1% 0.6% 5.9% 8.5% 15.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 09/12/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##