* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 09/11/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 27 30 35 41 47 54 56 59 63 65 65 63 60 59 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 27 30 35 41 47 54 56 59 63 65 65 63 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 24 25 25 26 28 29 30 29 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 18 16 15 18 17 20 14 18 11 13 10 13 22 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 4 358 353 356 359 347 328 318 295 287 229 217 250 206 223 226 238 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.5 28.8 27.4 26.9 26.1 25.3 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 156 154 153 154 157 160 159 160 153 139 134 125 116 105 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 86 85 83 82 81 81 79 78 79 78 77 74 70 66 62 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 8 8 10 12 13 15 17 18 20 20 20 20 18 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -52 -62 -73 -67 -48 -27 0 28 43 48 54 40 46 30 17 2 200 MB DIV 59 90 65 68 71 76 55 71 83 59 87 113 32 46 28 6 2 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 2 2 5 3 3 LAND (KM) 1103 1110 1081 1058 1043 1048 1109 1190 1231 1244 1259 1246 1248 1245 1310 1387 1450 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.4 14.7 14.8 14.4 13.9 13.9 14.4 15.4 16.8 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.5 114.1 114.5 114.8 115.1 115.5 116.1 116.8 117.7 119.0 120.5 122.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 3 2 4 3 4 6 9 11 13 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 21 18 18 19 15 20 26 30 26 16 5 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 11. 17. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. 40. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 15. 13. 11. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 21. 27. 34. 36. 39. 43. 45. 45. 43. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.9 112.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 09/11/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -55.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.54 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 19.1% 3.5% 2.0% 1.0% 5.1% 13.8% 15.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 0.5% 7.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 1.8% 4.6% 5.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.2% 4.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 2.8% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 09/11/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##