* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 09/11/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 26 30 36 44 53 56 59 63 64 66 67 66 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 26 30 36 44 53 56 59 63 64 66 67 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 28 30 31 32 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 16 15 16 13 15 16 16 14 10 10 9 3 8 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 1 -4 0 1 2 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 357 5 10 354 2 343 335 322 308 271 268 212 208 200 226 221 253 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.0 27.1 26.5 25.8 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 160 158 156 152 153 155 159 159 158 152 144 135 129 121 108 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -51.7 -51.2 -51.8 -50.9 -51.5 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 87 86 86 84 83 81 80 79 79 76 74 70 67 64 57 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 8 8 9 11 13 15 19 20 21 23 22 23 22 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -45 -51 -59 -71 -60 -32 1 26 47 55 59 47 43 16 6 -12 200 MB DIV 51 60 94 65 56 68 83 76 82 91 80 71 63 52 -3 -12 6 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 -2 1 0 3 -1 4 2 5 3 LAND (KM) 1102 1135 1141 1114 1092 1069 1095 1156 1191 1207 1220 1183 1160 1131 1109 1114 1161 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.7 14.6 14.2 14.2 14.6 15.4 16.8 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.1 113.8 114.4 114.8 115.3 115.6 116.0 116.6 117.4 118.5 119.6 120.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 5 2 2 3 4 5 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 21 19 17 18 16 19 25 30 29 13 8 5 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 18. 24. 28. 32. 35. 38. 40. 40. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 18. 19. 20. 21. 18. 17. 15. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 16. 24. 33. 36. 39. 43. 44. 46. 47. 46. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.3 112.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 09/11/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -16.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.01 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 6.8% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 2.3% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 09/11/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##