* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 07/18/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 59 75 87 99 100 100 101 96 90 88 85 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 59 75 87 99 100 100 101 96 90 88 85 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 47 55 65 75 82 83 76 68 64 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 16 15 10 12 6 8 7 6 13 10 6 2 2 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 0 1 3 4 0 3 1 -5 -6 3 7 5 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 27 17 24 19 360 331 329 326 58 57 354 346 327 309 359 306 326 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.1 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 164 163 164 165 164 151 149 150 145 136 131 130 131 127 123 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.2 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 86 86 86 86 85 88 84 81 79 76 72 71 71 69 68 63 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 16 17 19 22 29 32 38 40 41 45 45 42 41 39 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -29 -35 -38 -30 -26 -9 22 20 40 44 53 69 82 76 96 127 200 MB DIV 61 87 59 68 76 98 137 162 115 75 95 68 43 0 12 7 18 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -8 -7 -5 -5 -9 -7 -4 -1 1 -1 5 11 6 6 5 LAND (KM) 944 977 1022 1045 1081 1177 1137 1143 1212 1267 1359 1500 1665 1782 1873 2080 1907 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 11 11 10 11 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 32 30 34 41 44 22 17 15 8 4 3 2 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 17. 25. 31. 34. 36. 39. 40. 41. 41. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. 20. 27. 35. 36. 35. 36. 33. 27. 24. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 34. 50. 62. 74. 75. 75. 76. 71. 65. 63. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 107.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 07/18/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.33 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -46.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.41 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.2% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 24.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 16.1% 3.3% 1.7% 0.6% 5.8% 20.1% 15.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 5.5% 22.4% Consensus: 0.4% 13.3% 6.9% 0.6% 0.2% 9.0% 16.5% 12.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 16.0% 30.0% 79.0% SDCON: 0.2% 12.1% 4.9% 0.8% 0.1% 12.5% 23.2% 45.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 07/18/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##