* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 07/18/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 45 54 62 77 88 94 97 99 97 93 89 85 82 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 45 54 62 77 88 94 97 99 97 93 89 85 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 42 47 56 65 71 77 83 84 77 68 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 13 13 12 10 10 10 11 10 14 10 9 8 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 0 2 3 1 0 3 -1 -4 0 5 8 4 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 30 32 29 28 23 349 341 342 357 47 12 348 332 337 286 230 260 SST (C) 30.0 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.7 28.7 28.5 28.5 27.8 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 162 163 163 163 163 164 162 151 149 149 142 133 131 130 123 128 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 89 87 87 87 87 89 87 84 83 81 77 71 72 70 67 62 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 16 17 18 20 20 26 30 34 37 40 41 42 41 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -25 -31 -38 -40 -34 -19 8 19 27 37 42 54 65 68 80 78 200 MB DIV 43 71 85 77 70 95 131 182 126 79 75 102 39 44 30 28 12 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -5 -6 -4 -7 -7 -14 -4 2 4 4 12 12 15 2 LAND (KM) 949 958 979 1010 1039 1109 1151 1152 1176 1241 1322 1437 1548 1673 1819 1991 2134 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 31 32 32 30 39 42 44 22 16 12 8 4 3 2 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 18. 25. 31. 35. 37. 40. 41. 42. 43. 44. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 17. 25. 31. 34. 36. 33. 31. 27. 23. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 29. 37. 52. 63. 69. 72. 74. 72. 68. 64. 60. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 106.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 07/18/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -5.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.50 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -23.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.10 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.3% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 21.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 10.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 4.2% 29.5% 33.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.4% 1.6% 2.6% 45.2% Consensus: 0.3% 13.2% 7.3% 0.4% 0.3% 8.9% 18.0% 26.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 25.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% 9.0% 10.0% 5.0% SDCON: 1.1% 19.1% 7.6% 0.7% 0.1% 8.9% 14.0% 15.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 07/18/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##