* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 07/18/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 45 56 69 82 98 107 109 116 111 107 101 95 88 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 45 56 69 82 98 107 109 116 111 107 101 95 88 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 36 44 53 66 81 91 97 102 100 93 79 66 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 14 15 9 10 3 4 11 10 17 13 13 9 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 1 3 7 1 -4 -7 1 6 5 3 1 SHEAR DIR 38 38 45 45 41 45 349 356 351 44 51 4 355 327 287 268 278 SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.6 28.9 28.8 28.2 27.6 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 161 162 162 163 164 164 161 154 153 146 140 133 127 124 113 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.5 -50.6 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 90 89 88 88 87 86 87 85 83 82 78 72 68 67 67 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 15 16 19 22 25 32 37 38 45 44 47 46 43 39 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -21 -21 -25 -32 -22 0 11 29 35 47 55 65 66 71 64 72 200 MB DIV 34 34 57 71 54 69 74 154 181 127 113 99 73 52 14 16 3 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -4 -4 -4 -9 -12 -8 -1 3 10 9 21 16 15 LAND (KM) 921 921 938 959 1004 1073 1148 1192 1184 1200 1257 1358 1473 1558 1635 1713 1774 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.5 12.1 13.0 13.9 15.1 16.1 16.6 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.4 107.3 108.1 109.0 110.8 112.6 114.3 116.0 117.9 119.8 121.8 123.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 10 9 9 10 11 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 32 32 32 30 41 47 43 25 17 8 7 5 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 9. 18. 26. 32. 37. 40. 42. 44. 45. 45. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 17. 29. 36. 37. 43. 38. 37. 33. 27. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 15. 20. 32. 44. 57. 73. 82. 84. 91. 86. 82. 76. 70. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 105.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 07/18/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -10.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -54.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.52 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% 22.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 32.8% 7.1% 4.0% 3.0% 9.7% 37.3% 54.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 13.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 20.3% 33.1% 55.2% Consensus: 1.0% 22.8% 8.8% 1.5% 1.1% 16.8% 31.0% 36.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 07/18/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##