* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 07/18/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 33 43 54 63 80 88 96 98 99 97 93 88 87 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 33 43 54 63 80 88 96 98 99 97 93 88 87 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 35 42 50 58 68 76 79 76 68 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 19 21 17 17 14 14 8 6 9 15 14 10 12 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -1 1 1 1 5 -2 -4 -3 4 6 5 2 SHEAR DIR 41 32 37 40 43 35 6 346 332 19 51 18 11 335 321 309 348 SST (C) 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.7 27.2 27.2 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 161 161 161 161 165 165 163 152 151 149 141 136 136 130 127 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.5 -51.6 -50.5 -51.5 -50.7 -51.2 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.9 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 89 90 89 89 88 86 89 88 86 83 81 74 70 67 66 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 14 16 19 21 22 29 33 37 41 43 45 45 41 40 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -26 -23 -21 -24 -33 -21 -11 22 26 36 49 66 67 79 74 75 200 MB DIV 86 48 54 80 88 72 84 95 173 114 83 79 81 68 12 -2 18 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 -1 -4 -3 -8 -10 -10 -3 0 4 7 15 10 8 LAND (KM) 919 933 937 953 986 1063 1124 1151 1117 1112 1219 1321 1462 1600 1712 1823 1954 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.7 14.0 15.3 16.1 16.5 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.9 106.8 107.6 108.4 110.0 111.7 113.2 114.9 116.9 119.2 121.2 123.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 32 30 33 26 33 45 41 22 16 11 8 5 6 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 8. 18. 27. 35. 39. 43. 46. 48. 50. 50. 51. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 27. 31. 37. 38. 38. 36. 32. 26. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 23. 34. 43. 60. 68. 76. 78. 79. 77. 74. 68. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 105.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 07/18/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.94 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.45 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -12.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -28.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.17 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 7.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 2.2% 18.2% 35.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 21.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 6.2% 18.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 07/18/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##