* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972026 07/17/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 34 45 55 64 73 84 85 92 96 93 93 89 85 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 34 45 55 64 73 84 85 92 96 93 93 89 85 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 27 31 35 40 45 50 58 67 75 77 73 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 18 21 23 21 19 17 14 12 2 10 11 10 11 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 4 -3 4 3 -4 -5 -1 5 4 9 SHEAR DIR 48 53 51 56 59 47 35 360 353 322 356 45 5 349 312 279 255 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.7 30.0 29.9 30.1 29.8 29.8 29.1 28.4 28.3 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 163 161 161 163 162 164 162 163 156 149 149 137 134 133 132 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 87 87 88 89 88 87 86 89 86 84 82 79 74 67 61 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 18 20 22 25 32 32 36 41 41 45 44 42 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -24 -28 -31 -23 -30 -20 -7 15 27 19 31 39 55 88 106 95 200 MB DIV 85 49 40 41 76 101 97 111 163 147 121 78 115 45 35 13 44 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -4 -5 -3 -6 -14 -5 0 0 4 9 10 11 LAND (KM) 882 903 956 1004 1061 1168 1280 1332 1305 1216 1137 1144 1221 1421 1649 1858 1937 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.6 10.2 10.4 11.5 13.1 14.8 16.3 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.2 107.2 108.2 109.0 109.8 111.0 112.2 113.2 114.0 115.1 116.6 118.4 120.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 6 8 11 11 11 13 14 13 8 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 33 32 28 26 31 40 51 45 31 15 9 5 3 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 8. 17. 26. 34. 39. 43. 47. 50. 52. 53. 54. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -14. -15. -14. -13. -12. -10. -8. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 22. 32. 30. 34. 36. 33. 34. 30. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 14. 25. 35. 44. 53. 64. 65. 72. 76. 73. 73. 69. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.9 106.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972026 INVEST 07/17/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.94 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.38 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -11.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.33 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -27.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.16 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 6.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.4% 13.2% 36.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% Consensus: 0.3% 2.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 4.4% 18.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972026 INVEST 07/17/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##