* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962026 09/09/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 38 45 52 59 67 68 69 69 68 69 72 76 78 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 38 45 52 59 67 68 69 69 68 69 72 76 78 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 40 42 45 49 53 55 55 53 52 52 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 10 12 6 2 3 3 4 1 3 4 0 3 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 3 7 5 1 6 3 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 286 240 246 287 295 311 315 289 24 128 59 123 195 43 142 214 241 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 27.9 28.6 27.7 28.4 28.0 27.4 27.1 27.4 27.2 28.1 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 158 159 157 144 151 141 148 144 137 133 136 135 144 144 148 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 71 70 71 71 69 67 62 60 61 63 60 57 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 14 15 16 16 18 17 16 15 12 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 16 20 24 25 36 58 61 66 70 60 46 42 32 28 21 38 31 200 MB DIV 29 13 14 12 19 51 12 -6 -22 -1 -6 12 5 -17 -13 -12 -16 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 1 1 -2 -1 0 0 1 5 0 2 -5 -3 -5 -5 LAND (KM) 945 994 1054 1139 1225 1391 1578 1721 1858 1961 2047 2158 2156 2012 1848 1708 1598 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 6 6 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 22 28 25 19 7 14 6 15 13 11 6 9 9 19 15 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 30. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 29. 37. 38. 39. 39. 38. 39. 42. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 114.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962026 INVEST 09/09/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 1.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.25 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -44.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.39 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 19.2% 16.2% 13.8% 0.0% 20.2% 18.9% 21.4% Logistic: 5.0% 17.9% 5.9% 3.3% 1.0% 4.1% 4.5% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% Consensus: 5.0% 13.1% 7.4% 5.7% 0.3% 8.2% 8.1% 8.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% SDCON: 3.0% 10.0% 5.2% 3.3% 0.6% 5.6% 5.5% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962026 INVEST 09/09/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##