* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962026 09/09/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 44 51 55 54 51 51 51 50 52 55 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 44 51 55 54 51 51 51 50 52 55 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 32 34 35 34 34 33 32 32 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 8 6 9 10 7 6 2 6 7 9 6 7 7 0 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -2 -6 -2 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 260 274 269 262 274 312 292 267 247 253 283 313 271 307 215 217 239 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.2 28.7 27.5 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.6 26.1 25.7 26.5 27.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 159 157 152 139 132 133 129 126 128 123 119 127 137 144 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 71 73 73 73 71 69 66 66 61 58 55 59 58 59 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 11 11 11 11 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 4 13 20 25 25 46 53 57 48 37 23 19 19 18 21 17 26 200 MB DIV 3 25 9 14 13 19 11 11 -10 -42 -29 -22 -7 -19 -4 -8 -8 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -3 -5 0 -2 -2 1 0 0 -1 1 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 930 946 987 1053 1135 1263 1407 1499 1581 1654 1752 1860 1985 2117 2077 1926 1745 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.2 19.4 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.8 115.8 116.9 118.1 120.5 122.8 124.7 126.4 127.9 129.4 130.8 132.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 22 28 24 13 4 1 3 4 1 2 1 0 4 8 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. 25. 26. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 26. 30. 29. 26. 26. 26. 25. 27. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 113.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962026 INVEST 09/09/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.4% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 18.5% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 21.0% 7.6% 4.1% 1.8% 3.2% 2.7% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 13.8% 7.6% 1.4% 0.6% 7.5% 7.3% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% SDCON: 0.7% 8.4% 4.3% 0.7% 0.3% 4.2% 4.6% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962026 INVEST 09/09/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##