* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962026 09/09/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 38 47 56 59 61 59 58 59 58 59 62 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 38 47 56 59 61 59 58 59 58 59 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 35 37 39 39 39 38 37 35 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 6 7 9 5 3 4 5 8 4 7 6 4 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 -4 1 0 0 -2 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 134 230 261 248 268 298 269 303 218 262 246 282 265 308 227 223 233 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.4 28.8 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.3 26.7 25.9 25.6 25.7 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 156 156 160 153 139 135 132 131 125 130 121 118 119 133 130 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 74 73 71 69 68 65 63 56 53 54 55 55 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 11 11 12 13 15 17 16 16 16 15 15 14 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 12 20 27 34 59 58 49 39 32 22 28 20 16 18 14 200 MB DIV 26 18 32 18 17 11 36 7 0 -25 -29 1 0 -9 -23 -4 -7 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 -2 -4 2 -1 -1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 914 920 942 985 1059 1209 1343 1472 1550 1614 1679 1798 1909 2031 2091 1906 1699 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.4 19.7 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.9 114.9 115.9 117.1 119.6 121.9 124.1 125.9 127.4 128.7 130.3 131.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 8 7 7 8 7 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 24 24 29 13 2 3 3 4 1 5 0 0 0 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 23. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 22. 31. 34. 36. 34. 33. 34. 33. 34. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.2 113.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962026 INVEST 09/09/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -46.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.41 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 19.4% 18.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 28.6% 11.2% 6.7% 2.7% 6.9% 3.8% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 17.1% 9.1% 2.2% 0.9% 8.9% 7.7% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.7% 10.0% 5.0% 1.1% 0.4% 4.9% 4.3% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962026 INVEST 09/09/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##