* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962026 09/09/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 38 43 52 60 68 70 70 68 68 69 71 73 78 82 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 38 43 52 60 68 70 70 68 68 69 71 73 78 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 42 47 51 52 52 53 54 55 56 56 59 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 3 5 5 7 7 8 4 4 3 6 3 2 1 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -4 -5 -1 -2 -5 -3 -4 -3 0 1 0 3 4 1 SHEAR DIR 178 129 279 281 271 286 251 254 222 277 237 279 272 200 240 259 268 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.9 29.2 28.3 27.3 26.7 26.7 26.2 26.3 26.0 26.7 27.2 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 157 154 158 149 138 131 131 125 126 122 129 135 141 141 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.3 -50.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 74 75 74 72 69 64 64 62 58 53 53 51 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 12 12 13 16 18 19 19 19 20 20 21 20 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR -1 2 5 12 19 30 52 63 60 55 55 41 42 49 48 53 56 200 MB DIV 69 42 32 32 29 4 23 14 3 -18 -28 -20 -3 -3 -5 3 4 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 2 0 0 2 2 2 2 3 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 851 876 868 870 898 1036 1190 1372 1511 1651 1770 1915 2071 2166 2011 1867 1699 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.8 18.8 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.0 112.9 113.9 115.1 117.6 120.4 123.0 125.4 127.5 129.3 131.0 132.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 9 8 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 23 25 25 21 25 7 4 2 3 0 3 0 4 6 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 19. 23. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 28. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 10. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 13. 18. 27. 35. 43. 45. 45. 43. 43. 44. 46. 48. 53. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 111.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962026 INVEST 09/09/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.89 7.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.35 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 37.2% 22.9% 0.0% 0.0% 26.5% 37.3% 0.0% Logistic: 10.0% 42.1% 20.3% 13.6% 5.6% 28.3% 48.7% 22.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 19.0% 4.3% 1.2% 0.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% Consensus: 3.5% 32.8% 15.8% 4.9% 2.1% 19.5% 29.1% 7.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 9.0% SDCON: 2.2% 21.9% 10.4% 2.9% 1.5% 11.2% 17.5% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962026 INVEST 09/09/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##