* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962026 07/14/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 43 55 67 80 88 86 80 71 62 53 45 36 26 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 43 55 67 80 88 86 80 71 62 53 45 36 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 45 56 73 87 87 75 62 51 42 35 29 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 9 6 1 4 10 12 9 7 10 14 17 22 20 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 7 2 0 9 6 0 2 0 4 9 SHEAR DIR 301 281 275 305 328 346 49 77 87 119 179 174 198 237 280 266 263 SST (C) 31.0 31.2 30.8 30.3 30.0 29.3 29.2 28.9 27.9 26.1 25.3 25.0 24.0 23.0 21.6 21.3 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 170 166 158 157 154 143 125 116 112 101 92 77 73 68 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.4 -50.8 -49.6 -49.9 -49.3 -49.7 -49.4 -49.9 -49.8 -50.1 -49.8 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 69 70 68 69 66 65 61 52 47 44 42 38 35 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 13 13 14 16 19 22 28 33 33 32 29 26 24 21 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -4 2 14 30 64 102 150 173 153 121 104 84 80 72 54 30 200 MB DIV 52 45 47 58 75 86 97 63 86 79 -1 -16 -1 2 16 -8 -20 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -11 -20 -13 -4 -4 -3 -5 3 4 3 7 7 3 5 3 LAND (KM) 482 561 664 774 819 941 1059 1139 1205 1249 1268 1307 1334 1374 1332 1318 1335 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 11 10 10 9 11 10 8 7 9 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 32 30 30 23 24 18 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 11. 17. 21. 24. 24. 24. 23. 20. 18. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 22. 31. 32. 28. 23. 17. 14. 10. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 13. 25. 37. 50. 58. 56. 50. 41. 32. 23. 15. 6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 107.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962026 INVEST 07/14/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.94 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -38.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.31 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 21.2% 17.8% 15.0% 0.0% 22.6% 36.4% 54.5% Logistic: 1.4% 11.2% 3.6% 1.6% 0.4% 3.2% 3.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.4% 11.5% 7.3% 5.6% 0.1% 8.6% 13.2% 18.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 14.0% 7.0% SDCON: 1.7% 8.2% 5.1% 3.3% 0.5% 6.8% 13.6% 12.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962026 INVEST 07/14/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##