* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962026 07/14/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 44 49 65 78 92 95 94 88 80 70 61 56 48 39 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 44 49 65 78 92 95 94 88 80 70 61 56 48 39 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 46 58 75 89 93 85 70 56 45 37 31 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 6 2 7 15 6 9 5 10 15 14 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 3 -1 0 5 3 8 12 6 6 4 4 3 2 SHEAR DIR 304 313 302 299 332 348 122 49 65 87 114 94 216 231 249 273 229 SST (C) 30.9 30.6 30.8 30.8 30.6 30.2 29.3 29.2 28.8 27.7 26.2 25.0 24.4 23.9 23.0 22.0 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 173 173 168 158 156 152 141 125 113 106 100 91 81 73 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -50.2 -50.3 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 74 73 74 73 72 73 72 64 58 53 50 45 41 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 14 16 16 22 25 31 34 35 34 32 29 26 25 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -16 -12 -5 7 38 79 108 136 154 130 100 94 66 44 22 5 200 MB DIV 75 73 60 63 56 72 100 112 69 101 39 -3 -12 2 13 -6 -22 700-850 TADV -10 -9 -8 -14 -15 -6 -6 -1 -3 0 4 0 9 9 5 4 0 LAND (KM) 443 485 552 623 717 868 953 1037 1088 1113 1147 1168 1205 1227 1252 1285 1285 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 14 13 13 12 10 9 8 10 10 9 7 7 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 46 43 24 26 33 33 25 24 17 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 28. 26. 24. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 15. 27. 33. 35. 33. 28. 21. 17. 14. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 15. 8. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 19. 35. 48. 62. 65. 64. 58. 50. 40. 31. 26. 18. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 104.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962026 INVEST 07/14/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.95 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.36 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.59 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 28.2% 19.6% 15.9% 0.0% 24.6% 58.2% 49.4% Logistic: 3.4% 28.5% 9.7% 5.1% 1.7% 10.3% 11.5% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 7.4% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 1.8% 3.0% 2.6% Consensus: 4.7% 21.4% 10.6% 7.2% 0.6% 12.2% 24.3% 18.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 18.0% 27.0% SDCON: 2.8% 16.7% 8.3% 4.1% 0.8% 7.6% 21.1% 22.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962026 INVEST 07/14/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##