* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962026 07/14/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 44 50 64 77 88 97 97 90 84 74 64 56 46 36 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 44 50 64 77 88 97 97 90 84 74 64 56 46 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 40 49 62 79 96 103 97 82 67 53 41 32 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 8 9 9 2 6 14 15 8 6 8 8 16 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 2 2 2 2 5 1 9 10 5 4 5 4 4 SHEAR DIR 293 310 313 297 300 343 75 43 52 51 92 117 112 198 211 237 220 SST (C) 31.0 30.8 30.7 31.1 30.8 30.2 29.9 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.2 25.8 24.8 23.5 21.9 21.1 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 173 173 173 168 165 157 152 144 135 121 112 99 82 73 62 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -50.7 -51.1 -50.3 -50.4 -49.5 -50.2 -49.6 -50.4 -49.9 -50.4 -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 74 72 72 70 66 64 65 63 60 60 56 49 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 12 14 16 19 24 29 34 37 36 35 30 27 25 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -15 -11 -11 0 28 70 109 165 181 162 127 96 63 52 39 34 200 MB DIV 58 61 67 66 65 56 69 107 68 78 82 7 0 1 18 22 13 700-850 TADV -4 -10 -10 -10 -10 -12 -3 -3 -3 -6 5 3 2 7 2 5 1 LAND (KM) 444 448 488 541 614 790 837 990 1181 1305 1331 1239 1146 1147 1226 1198 1232 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.7 17.5 19.1 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.9 106.4 107.8 109.2 111.7 114.2 116.7 119.3 121.2 122.3 122.8 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 12 12 12 11 8 8 9 13 13 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 31 45 35 25 29 31 24 21 16 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 27. 28. 30. 30. 29. 27. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 14. 24. 34. 39. 35. 31. 23. 18. 14. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 16. 8. 0. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 14. 20. 34. 47. 58. 67. 67. 60. 54. 44. 34. 26. 16. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 103.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962026 INVEST 07/14/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.95 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.42 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 36.5% 20.6% 16.2% 0.0% 25.5% 54.0% 49.7% Logistic: 2.9% 25.6% 9.1% 4.6% 1.5% 8.9% 8.1% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 9.3% 3.4% 1.0% 0.1% 2.9% 1.9% 0.9% Consensus: 4.7% 23.8% 11.0% 7.3% 0.5% 12.5% 21.3% 17.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 26.0% 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 8.0% 11.0% 39.0% SDCON: 2.8% 24.9% 10.5% 4.1% 0.7% 10.2% 16.1% 28.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962026 INVEST 07/14/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##