* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962026 07/13/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 45 54 68 80 93 99 101 100 92 82 73 65 54 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 45 54 68 80 93 99 101 100 92 82 73 65 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 49 60 73 89 103 107 98 81 64 49 38 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 11 8 8 4 5 5 12 11 8 7 10 19 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -1 2 0 2 5 2 6 11 4 5 4 7 7 SHEAR DIR 293 294 317 323 310 332 330 15 77 74 86 90 104 170 216 223 227 SST (C) 30.6 30.9 30.6 30.6 30.7 30.3 30.2 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.1 26.9 25.0 24.0 22.5 21.5 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 174 173 173 173 173 169 168 156 155 150 144 133 114 104 88 76 66 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -50.1 -49.8 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 79 77 77 75 73 72 69 65 64 65 61 61 56 48 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 13 15 20 23 28 33 36 37 33 31 27 25 21 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -5 -17 -12 -7 11 50 91 134 172 172 145 116 93 76 71 57 200 MB DIV 40 54 55 64 53 61 82 103 90 55 68 40 26 0 2 36 3 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -10 -11 -10 -13 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 6 0 8 9 10 8 LAND (KM) 451 479 508 570 621 791 871 957 1104 1233 1283 1220 1129 1128 1242 1227 1211 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.8 18.5 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 104.1 105.6 107.1 108.5 111.1 113.5 115.6 117.8 119.7 121.0 121.8 122.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 12 11 11 10 8 8 11 12 14 13 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 32 41 42 27 23 34 32 22 20 15 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 31. 33. 34. 34. 32. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 19. 28. 34. 37. 36. 28. 23. 18. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 15. 24. 38. 50. 63. 69. 71. 70. 62. 52. 43. 35. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 102.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962026 INVEST 07/13/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.96 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.34 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -38.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.30 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 23.4% 19.4% 16.0% 0.0% 24.8% 48.1% 49.5% Logistic: 1.7% 13.5% 4.3% 1.6% 0.7% 4.8% 14.8% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 16.7% 5.5% 0.9% 0.2% 1.4% 2.8% 5.7% Consensus: 4.5% 17.9% 9.7% 6.2% 0.3% 10.3% 21.9% 20.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 20.0% 9.0% 2.0% 2.0% 10.0% 7.0% 7.0% SDCON: 2.7% 18.9% 9.3% 4.1% 1.1% 10.1% 14.4% 13.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962026 INVEST 07/13/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##