* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962026 07/13/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 58 72 86 97 103 107 105 97 88 80 74 65 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 58 72 86 97 103 107 105 97 88 80 74 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 50 62 79 94 105 109 100 84 68 53 41 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 8 9 10 9 5 1 3 9 12 8 4 6 10 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 1 6 1 0 4 8 5 2 3 5 SHEAR DIR 326 317 305 329 337 341 16 148 30 51 72 110 120 167 221 241 247 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.2 29.2 28.9 28.1 26.9 25.3 24.5 23.1 21.8 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 172 171 170 168 167 168 157 154 145 133 116 108 95 80 80 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.0 -50.3 -49.5 -50.0 -49.4 -49.9 -49.4 -49.8 -49.8 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.2 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 79 78 77 75 73 70 69 67 62 61 59 52 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 13 17 22 27 31 36 37 34 32 28 26 21 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -15 -13 -20 -11 -1 24 67 92 141 176 156 135 99 62 51 39 200 MB DIV 56 41 49 57 70 66 98 121 96 79 84 73 13 -6 -12 10 -5 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -5 -9 -7 -9 -7 -2 -2 0 -3 4 4 8 9 0 4 LAND (KM) 520 561 604 647 692 792 927 950 983 1099 1175 1220 1182 1165 1233 1320 1403 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.7 14.2 15.2 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.5 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 102.5 104.0 105.5 106.9 109.5 111.8 113.9 116.0 118.3 120.2 121.8 122.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 13 12 11 12 11 11 9 9 10 12 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 37 40 34 32 27 36 23 18 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 1. 2. 9. 17. 25. 30. 34. 35. 37. 38. 37. 35. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 20. 29. 35. 40. 38. 32. 26. 21. 17. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 28. 42. 56. 67. 73. 77. 75. 67. 58. 50. 44. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 101.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962026 INVEST 07/13/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 8.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.33 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -29.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.18 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 23.4% 19.8% 16.2% 0.0% 26.1% 54.2% 48.7% Logistic: 1.6% 13.0% 4.3% 1.7% 0.8% 6.3% 38.5% 21.8% Bayesian: 1.0% 25.1% 7.2% 1.5% 0.2% 1.2% 2.8% 6.9% Consensus: 4.4% 20.5% 10.4% 6.4% 0.3% 11.2% 31.8% 25.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962026 INVEST 07/13/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##