* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 07/01/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 35 36 33 31 28 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 35 36 33 31 28 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 29 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 6 6 9 10 12 12 14 18 20 19 26 32 29 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 9 10 6 5 2 3 2 4 8 4 5 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 195 213 231 191 194 214 209 244 246 251 247 230 200 207 203 195 190 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.6 26.6 26.4 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.1 23.3 22.2 21.5 21.0 20.7 20.7 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 133 128 128 126 117 115 113 103 94 82 75 69 64 65 71 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -51.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 67 68 64 63 58 53 48 42 38 34 32 27 26 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 17 16 13 12 9 8 6 6 5 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR 52 43 44 51 64 56 85 58 37 12 -14 -28 -56 -63 -58 -29 -32 200 MB DIV 98 90 100 100 79 58 53 50 29 30 0 8 13 9 -11 5 2 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 2 2 1 2 2 5 5 3 0 -3 -8 -5 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1932 1904 1868 1827 1765 1649 1543 1467 1393 1351 1312 1230 1100 982 923 943 1040 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.3 15.9 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.4 20.8 22.2 23.7 25.1 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.8 127.0 127.2 127.3 127.1 126.6 126.1 126.1 126.4 126.9 127.3 127.3 126.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 7 7 8 7 7 5 4 2 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 11 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 4. -1. -7. -12. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -12. -11. -11. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 3. 1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -18. -21. -28. -34. -42. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 126.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 07/01/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.62 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -46.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.42 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 18.5% 14.3% 11.6% 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 14.4% 6.8% 2.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 11.1% 7.2% 4.8% 0.1% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 7.5% 4.6% 2.4% 0.0% 3.2% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 07/01/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##