* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 06/30/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 35 41 44 42 38 32 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 35 41 44 42 38 32 26 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 30 30 28 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 4 3 5 5 7 10 12 16 18 21 22 27 30 28 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 4 3 3 8 8 4 4 4 3 5 4 4 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 174 185 199 232 282 181 205 194 230 237 245 236 208 193 200 202 221 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.2 25.9 25.0 24.0 22.9 22.3 21.3 20.9 20.8 21.1 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 142 139 136 134 125 121 113 102 91 83 73 68 67 70 72 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.3 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 70 68 70 69 66 62 55 51 45 40 35 31 27 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 17 17 15 12 10 8 7 5 4 4 5 7 850 MB ENV VOR 45 52 60 53 58 67 71 78 54 26 2 -24 -40 -55 -21 -16 7 200 MB DIV 96 121 106 87 84 80 69 25 18 8 26 5 7 8 -3 0 -15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 2 1 3 3 5 7 6 2 -4 -8 -11 -10 -7 LAND (KM) 1994 2035 2032 2022 1973 1816 1639 1475 1351 1253 1207 1154 1064 940 814 719 663 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 14.3 15.4 16.5 17.8 19.5 21.4 23.2 24.8 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.2 127.5 127.6 127.5 126.6 125.4 124.6 124.7 125.2 125.9 126.1 125.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 3 3 6 8 8 8 10 10 9 6 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 18 14 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 16. 18. 19. 18. 15. 10. 4. -1. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 8. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. -9. -9. -7. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 16. 19. 17. 13. 7. 1. -3. -9. -17. -26. -35. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 126.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 06/30/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.75 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.91 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.7% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 17.4% 0.0% Logistic: 15.7% 55.1% 34.1% 24.1% 3.4% 7.5% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 9.3% 3.1% 2.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 27.3% 18.3% 8.4% 1.2% 9.1% 6.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.1% 15.1% 9.6% 4.2% 0.6% 5.0% 3.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 06/30/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##