* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952026 06/30/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 39 43 45 46 40 34 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 39 43 45 46 40 34 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 34 33 29 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 12 8 6 4 10 11 11 13 16 19 20 28 24 22 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 1 0 6 6 12 3 4 2 4 7 1 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 174 165 165 175 188 218 210 219 232 239 239 220 209 193 199 195 202 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.8 26.7 25.8 25.7 24.8 23.9 22.8 22.2 21.4 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 147 143 140 129 120 119 110 101 90 83 74 66 68 70 75 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -50.4 -50.8 -50.9 -50.3 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -50.4 -50.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 74 74 72 71 71 71 68 64 59 53 48 42 35 32 29 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 16 17 17 13 11 8 7 4 4 3 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 43 46 49 47 42 43 52 57 35 35 1 -8 -35 -35 -36 -28 -5 200 MB DIV 95 112 131 129 86 95 73 81 38 21 5 17 1 16 3 -4 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 4 1 5 1 5 3 2 -3 -11 -9 -7 -3 LAND (KM) 1879 1885 1885 1864 1841 1717 1567 1427 1313 1203 1123 1056 974 844 745 670 658 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 16.0 17.2 18.4 19.7 21.4 23.1 24.9 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.8 125.4 125.8 126.0 126.1 125.9 125.2 124.6 124.4 124.6 124.9 125.1 124.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 5 5 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 24 18 15 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 17. 16. 13. 8. 2. -3. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 15. 9. 2. -3. -10. -18. -27. -35. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 124.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952026 INVEST 06/30/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.71 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.66 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.4% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 18.6% 0.0% Logistic: 15.3% 58.7% 30.3% 21.9% 5.4% 11.4% 1.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 20.7% 8.8% 8.3% 3.1% 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 12.0% 33.0% 19.5% 8.3% 1.9% 11.4% 6.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.5% 19.5% 11.2% 4.1% 0.9% 6.7% 4.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952026 INVEST 06/30/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##